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Invalidation Scenarios
Sets out the measurable validation thresholds and decision criteria that can trigger a pivot, pause, simplification, migration, or retirement.
These thresholds define the project's explicit validation and continuation criteria. They are decision conditions for the proposed model, not expected outcomes.
| Scenario | Validation trigger | Intended response |
|---|---|---|
| Pons V2 delay | Pons V2 is cancelled or delayed beyond Q1 2027. | Pivot to other launchpads. |
| Robinhood Chain volume decline | Robinhood Chain volume drops more than 70% for seven consecutive days. | Pause or move the protocol to another chain. |
| Limited integration | Fewer than 10 tokens integrate by day 30. | Consider the product-market-fit thesis unsuccessful and pivot or retire. |
| Day-90 integration threshold | Fewer than 50 token integrations by day 90. | Retire the concept. |
| Staking adoption | Fewer than 100 stakers by day 90. | Simplify the model toward burn-only utility. |
| Native launchpad competition | Pons launches its own fee-routing system with holder rewards and multi-recipient support. | GetPaid may no longer be necessary on Robinhood Chain and may retire or move to another chain. |
| Regulatory action | Regulatory action specifically targets fee routing. | Pause, enter a compliance mode, or retire. |
| High-profile fraud | A major fraud case damages trust in the social payout mechanism. | Pause, improve verification, or retire. |
How to read these criteria
The integration thresholds test whether the model can establish sufficient adoption after launch. The Robinhood Chain, Pons, competition, regulatory, and fraud criteria test whether core operating assumptions remain viable.
Retirement conditions remain intentional parts of the roadmap. They provide defined points for ending the concept if validation does not support continued development.